On Global Warming and Climate Change: Fallacy or Fact?

On Global Warming and Climate Change: Fallacy or Fact?

The title is a little misleading. After all, very few scientists deny that it’s happening. In the past decade we’ve experienced the ten warmest years since 1850.  I want to be 100% clear about the purpose of this article right from the outset:  Human beings have accelerated climate change.  The rate of temperature increase is astonishing and utterly unique in the paleoclimatology record.  There’s no doubt at all.  Even from a passive observer’s opinion, the winters are vastly warmer than several decades ago.  Things have indeed changed, and my point is that you don’t have to be a scientist to see that it’s happening/happened.

Last year, 2023, was the warmest year on record.  This is from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and cited at the end of this article.

The greenhouse gases (Carbon Dioxide, Methane, Nitrous Oxide) we pour into the atmosphere contribute to the Greenhouse Effect. Shortwave solar radiation hits the Earth and the ground converts it to longwave energy (heat), which rises. Greenhouse gases absorb this heat and re-radiate it back to the surface. This acts like a blanket, or a greenhouse, which keeps the surface warmer. It’s an essential, necessary, and natural process. In fact, if it weren’t for this, our global temperature would be too low to sustain life. The concern that many environmentalists have is that as we put more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, we’ll accelerate the Greenhouse Effect, and we could end up with runaway warming on the planet.

We are already experiencing it.  This graph shows the source of greenhouse gas emissions on Earth.

Over the past few years I’ve done a number of book signings for my series The Rise of Oceania. The story’s setting is the near future where surface cropland is scorched and rising oceans have disrupted coastal shipping facilities. Nations are suffering food scarcity, governments are failing, and refugees are flooding across the world searching for survival and safety.  As a result, superpowers are looking to the oceans for new resources. They’ve settled shallow cities to farm fish and kelp and extract minerals.  Here are just a few examples from A Blanket of Steel:

The books area not really about Global Warming, but the setting is its result. It’s a realistic future that I foresee happening. The series consists of espionage technothrillers about spies and conflict between superpowers as they try to exploit resources underwater.  The reason my characters are colonizing the seafloors is to harvest resources because of climate catastrophe on the surface:  flooding, storms, refugee hordes, and more.

However, at signings I’ve come across several people who not only deny the facts of Global Warming, but they seem angered by the concept. One man brushed past me and snapped over his shoulder, “Is this about that Global Warming shit?” I replied, “It’s an underwater thriller.” Books in The Rise of Oceania take place 100% underwater, but the reasoning behind the existence of underwater settlements is not a central focus of the book at all. To this I was rewarded with what many call “The Old Man Swat,” as if to say, “To hell with you.”

And he’s not the only one. Others have approached me to express their skepticism. I’m always eager to speak to these people, because to be frank, I’m also a skeptic about the precise causes of Global Warming. There can be no doubt that it’s happening — the evidence is all around us — but the reasons behind the warming are the central issue.

Milankovitch Cycles

The Earth is coming out of an ice age. The planet experiences one every hundred thousand years. It’s a cyclical period that Serbian scientist Milutin Milankovic investigated in the 1920s. The last ice age ended about 10,000 – 20,000 years before present, which means the next should be in about 80,000 years. (These glacial and interglacial periods are now called Milankovitch Cycles.) So we’re warming as a natural cause of our planet’s climate cycle, but environmentalists unanimously agree that the warming is the result of human impact. The carbon from fossil fuels we burn, the methane that rice paddies, garbage dumps, and cattle farming release, and the carbon from the forests we burn are all added to the atmospheric sink of greenhouse gases, and these are affecting our planet’s climate. The vast majority of scientists have accepted this fact. However, no one knows for sure how much of our warming is due to the accelerated amount of atmospheric greenhouse gases, and how much is due to the natural warming of the planet’s normal climatic cycle.

The NASA article here states, “The current warming trend is unequivocally the result of human activity since the 1950s and is proceeding at an unprecedented rate over millennia.”  There is some highly compelling evidence, all of which is provable and observable.  The evidence is from Nasa, found here.

• Global temperature rise
• Warming oceans
• Shrinking ice sheets
• Glacial retreat
• Decreased snow cover
• Sea level rise
• Declining arctic sea ice
• Increasing extreme weather events
• Ocean acidification

The effects of this are going to have a dramatic impact on countries. No one should deny that. We have to be ready to adapt our economies to mitigate and manage the change.  The Rise of Oceania takes place in a future where humans on the surface are struggling to obtain resources to maintain populations. There’s famine, disease, and rioting. There’s not enough food, fuel, or mineral resources, so nations are looking to the oceans for help. Water covers 70% of Earth, and there are untold resources there to help us continue to grow and to maintain our economies. There’s going to be a trigger event, however — the spark that pushes nations toward ocean floor colonization attempts — and it’ll likely be cropland failures on the surface, as well as shipping disruptions. I wrote about this, and how I first came up with the idea for the book, on my blog here.

Regardless of the causes of climate change, runaway warming will hurt economies, and the fact that this idea irritates some people perplexes me. We’re already seeing it happen, after all. Cropland is changing. In the Arctic Ocean, kelp forests are growing in size. Ocean levels are rising. Shipping facilities are in danger. Some island nations are low-lying and are at risk of disappearing. Bangladesh is home to over 170 million people, and most of the country is less than ten meters above sea level! Where will they go?  And the end result of ocean level rise?  Refugees.  War.  Famine.  Displaced families.  Failed governments.  Military dictatorships.  And as I wrote in a recent thriller:  When there are children involved, parents will do anything to protect them, even go to war.

On Statistics and Lies

“There are three kinds of falsehoods: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

The above quote is attributed to Arthur James Balfour in 1892. It’s often repeated with different variations (Mark Twain attributed it to British PM Benjamin Disraeli, but there is no record of Disraeli ever saying it) and earlier examples involve, “a fib, a lie, and statistics.” Regardless of the origin, the point is taken. Stats and graphs can be used to reinforce an argument, and the same statistics can be used (manipulated) to argue opposite sides of an issue. In fact, Michael Crichton, in his climate thriller State of Fear, made this exact argument. He used graphs to show that some locations, depending on the statistics used, can show a cooling trend, a warming trend, or a constant temperature.  Let’s look at some graphs that are frequently used by both environmentalists and detractors to make their cases about Global Warming:

 Graph 1

The graph of warming (above and cited below) since the 1800s tells us that temperatures are warming. We already know this, however, due to Milankovitch Cycles and the fact that we’ve recently emerged from an ice age. It doesn’t tell us anything we don’t already know.

 Graph 2

The graph of CO2 increase (above and cited below) is startling, however it doesn’t prove anything related to temperature change. It only says what everyone knows anyway: Since the Industrial Revolution in the mid 1700s, CO2 levels have been dramatically increasing.

Graph 3

The temperature since the 1800s is rising dramatically and abnormally, even when compared to temperatures during ice ages as well as the interglacial periods. Humans are having an impact on the global temperature.  The first map in this article is shocking evidence.

Make no mistake. Global Warming is happening. Human industry is releasing massive quantities of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, and these increase global temperatures. Humans are responsible for much of the Earth’s warming.

I guess if people have something to lose from changing their ways, they can become detractors. But economies can change. We can alter our fuel sources and lower our carbon footprint. We can switch to hydroelectric, fission, and eventually to fusion sources. We can switch to electric vehicles, but where does the electricity come from?  That’s a very important consideration.  From coal-burning plants?  Or from clean hydroelectric plants?  Forty-five percent of greenhouse gases each year come from electricity-generation!  People may feel good about driving an electric car … but where is the electricity coming from?

In Ontario, Canada — the province in which I live — 90% of our electricity is ‘clean,’ meaning it is generated by hydroelectric, wind, nuclear, or solar.  Electric cars are mostly using this as their source of energy.  That’s something to be very proud of, and I am.  We’re watching the transition to cleaner energies happen now, especially in the developed world. The less developed countries are going to be more difficult to change. Regardless of how much we lower our carbon footprint as a species, climate change is happening.

And it is inexorable.

We have to be prepared.

The debate about whether humans are responsible or not is really a non-issue. I do find it interesting discussing it and meeting skeptics, but it seems that both sides of the issue can make people angry. Humans might not be fully to blame, but when it comes to rapid climate change, we are.  There’s no doubt.

— Timothy S. Johnston, 8 October 2024

Selected Sources / Further Reading

Climate Change: How Do We Know? https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

2023 Was World’s Warmest Year on Record. https://www.noaa.gov/news/2023-was-worlds-warmest-year-on-record-by-far

Milankovitch Cycles. https://www.universetoday.com/39012/milankovitch-cycle/

Global Warming: News, Facts, Causes & Effects. https://www.livescience.com/climate-change.html

Greenhouse Gases. https://climateatlas.ca/greenhouse-gases

A Blanket Around the Earth. https://climate.nasa.gov/causes/

Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Data. https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-data

Antarctic Ice Shelves Rapidly Thinning. https://phys.org/news/2015-03-antarctic-ice-shelves-rapidly-thinning.html

How Ice Shelf Loss Drives Sea Level Rise. https://sealevel.nasa.gov/news/266/how-ice-shelf-loss-drives-sea-level-rise/

Graph 1 from NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=24363898

Graph 2 on Carbon Dioxide: https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/carbon-dioxide/https://climate.nasa.gov/vtal-signs/carbon-dioxide/

Graph 2 on Carbon Dioxide. https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/carbon-dioxide/

Graph 3 on Global Warming over the last 2000 years. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/global-warming/last-2000-years

Diagram of Trieste by Cheyney Steadman, from The Rise of Oceania by Timothy S. Johnston, from Fitzhenry & Whiteside Ltd.

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A BLANKET OF STEEL is out now!

WATCH THE GRIPPING BOOK TRAILER HERE.

FOR PURCHASE OPTIONS CLICK HERE

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A Blanket of Steel from Timothy S. Johnston and Fitzhenry & Whiteside, Ltd.

“Read the book and prepare to be blown away by one of the best writers I have ever had the pleasure to read. Timothy S. Johnston is simply amazing.” — FIVE Stars from Readers’ Favorite

“Innovative technology, Mac taking risks no one else would dare and thinking his way through to brilliant solutions … But the stakes are higher than they’ve ever been before. This is it. The countdown to the final battle … Johnston does an excellent job of keeping the tension taut as he plays with the reader’s perceptions of characters we thought we knew and trusted …” — SFcrowsnest

“Expect to be left breathless. Trust me here. Please. I COULD NOT PUT IT DOWN.” — Michael Libling, author of The Serial Killer’s Son Takes A Wife and Hollywood North: A Novel in Six Reels

Book Cover & Jacket Copy:

AN UNSTOPPABLE THREAT!

A mysterious assassin has murdered Cliff Sim, Chief Security Officer of the underwater colony, Trieste. Cliff was a mountain of a man, highly trained, and impossible to defeat in combat. And yet …

Someone brutally beat him and left his broken body in a secret Chinese facility at the bottom of the Pacific Ocean.

And included a calling card for Truman McClusky, Mayor of Trieste.

Taunting him.

Mac has led the underwater colonies in their fight against the world’s superpowers. Climate change has devastated the surface; nations suffer famine, drought, rebellion, rising waters, and apocalyptic coastal flooding. But now, as Mac leads the underwater colonies to freedom and independence, he’s faced with the gravest threat of his life: a Russian assassin, hellbent on killing Mac and everyone he cares for. Now Mac must uncover the identity of the killer, face him in combat, and at the same time lead people in battle against the largest underwater force ever assembled. It’s Mac’s final test, and to win the war, he must use every tool at his disposal, including the most surprising and devastating underwater weapons ever invented.

If Mac fails, all hope is lost for the future of human colonization on the ocean floors.

But the assassin could be anyone …

Watch your back, Mac.

A Blanket of Steel is the most gripping thriller yet in The Rise of Oceania.

FOR PURCHASE OPTIONS CLICK HERE

The other books in The Rise of Oceania series by Timothy S Johnston:

The War Beneath 9781771484718
The Savage Deeps 9781771485067
Fatal Depth 9781554555574
An Island of Light 9781554555819
The Shadow of War 9781554556007

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THE WAR BENEATH:  FIRST PLACE 2018 GLOBAL THRILLER Action / Adventure Category Winner, 2019 Silver Falchion Award Finalist, 2018 CLUE Award Semi-Finalist, 2019 Kindle Book Awards Semi-Finalist, & 2019 CYGNUS Award Shortlister

THE SAVAGE DEEPS:  FIRST PLACE 2020 CYGNUS Award Winner, 2019 GLOBAL THRILLER Awards Finalist, 2022 Kindle Book Awards Semi-Finalist; 2019 CLUE Award Shortlister

FATAL DEPTH: FIRST PLACE 2021 GLOBAL THRILLER Award Winner, 2022 Silver Falchion Award Finalist (Best Action Adventure), 2021 CYGNUS Award Semi-Finalist

Praise for THE WAR BENEATH

“If you’re looking for a techno-thriller combining Ian Fleming, Tom Clancy and John Le Carré, The War Beneath will satisfy … a ripping good yarn, a genuine page-turner.” — Amazing Stories
“One very riveting, intelligent read!” — Readers’ Favorite
“If you like novels like The Hunt for Red October and Red Storm Rising,
you will certainly enjoy The War Beneath.” — A Thrill A Week
“If you’re here for thrills, the book will deliver.” — The Cambridge Geek
“… an engaging world that is highly believable …” — The Future Fire
“This is a tense, gripping science fiction/thriller of which Tom Clancy might well be proud . . . When I say it is gripping, that is the simple truth.” — Ardath Mayhar
“… a thrill ride from beginning to end …” — SFcrowsnest
“… if you like Clancy and le Carré with a hint of Forsyth thrown in,
you’ll love The War Beneath.” — Colonel Jonathan P. Brazee (RET),
2017 Nebula Award & 2018 Dragon Award Finalist
“Fast-paced, good old-fashioned Cold War espionage … a great escape!” — The Minerva Reader